Yucca Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

043
FXUS65 KVEF 260930
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
130 AM PST Thu Dec 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A beautiful Christmas Day is in store with seasonal
temperatures, partly cloudy skies, and northerly breezes. An active
storm track to our north will keep most of the area dry and mild but
also bring periods of breezy winds through the remainder of 2024.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.
The overall pattern will remain fairly active through the weekend
with the main storm track remaining across the northern and central
Great Basin. A shortwave will pass through this afternoon, but
precipitation will this will remain north of the area the only
impact will be some increasing northwest winds across Esmeralda,
central Nye, and northern Lincoln Counties. Wind speeds in these
areas are only expected to be 15-25 mph with some gusts to around 30
mph. Another shortwave will pass through Friday, but this system
will be a little further south and will bring some precipitation to
the Sierra and far northern zones. Any precipitation that does fall
will remain light and generally across the higher elevations. The
high Sierra could see several inches of snow, but places like
Aspendell at 8500` feet are only expected to see a couple of inches
or snow or less. Winds are not expected to pose much of an issue,
but places like western San Bernardino could see winds gusting over
30 mph Friday afternoon. Right now, there is only about a 10% chance
of seeing winds reaching advisory criteria of 40 mph.

Quick ridging Saturday followed by another shortwave on Sunday. This
system will dig slightly further south and bring some minor wind
impacts to western San Bernardino County where we could see wind
gusts over 30 mph. Like with the previous shortwave, precipitation
amounts will remain light and mainly confined to the Sierra and
higher elevations of our northern zones. Temperatures will remain
several degrees above normal, but will cool a few degrees behind
Sunday`s shortwave.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

Forecast confidence decreases as we head into next week, especially
around New Year`s Eve and New Year`s Day. This is due to
interensemble variability regarding a potential second system
dropping into the area as Sunday`s system ejects into the Plains.
While both the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean solutions resolve this
system to some degree, they disagree on the strength of the system
and the speed at which it moves through. The ECMWF favors a faster
and weaker system, whereas its GFS counterpart favors a slower and
stronger system digging into our forecast area on New Year`s Eve.
Despite these differences regarding the strength and speed of this
system, the overwhelming majority of ensemble members agree that
this will be a dry system. This can be seen reflected in the NBM 6-
hour probabilities of measurable precipitation, which remains under
10% New Year`s Eve through New Year`s Day for much of our forecast
area. The primary forecast elements impacted by these discrepancies
are temperature and wind (i.e., just how cool and windy could it be
as we ring in the New Year). Beyond New Year`s Eve and New Year`s
Day, there is good ensemble agreement that an upper-level ridge will
develop over the Western US, which will allow for a warmer than
normal start to the year.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds with speeds under 8KT will
continue through Friday morning, following diurnal wind patterns.
Winds through daybreak will remain southwesterly, becoming variable
before settling out of the northeast this afternoon. Thereafter,
winds return to the southwest overnight, though some variability
will be possible. VFR conditions prevail, with passing mid and high
clouds with SCT-BKN bases around 15-20kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Light diurnally driven winds with sustained speeds
around 8KT or less will continue at regional terminals. The
exception will be this afternoon at KBIH, where gusty northwesterly
winds will develop, with gusts to around 20KT expected. After
sunset, gusts will diminish, and winds once again become light. SCT-
BKN clouds with bases around 15-20KFT will continue streaming over
the area through the forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Stessman
AVIATION...Phillipson

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